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William T. Sherman
TWL Member
01-18-2011 02:45 PM / profile

Related news: Commentary on rising cost of food and energy in the developing world from Simon Black

While the bulk of 2011 food protests have focused around countries that are, to put it bluntly, in the periphery of the desert, and thus mostly irrelevant from a food supply perspective (their domestic issues are of no matter to America: after all they have no oil) the recent focus on surging prices has been largely geographically isolated for the time being. That said, in today's piece, "Sovereign Man" Simon Black takes a look at a far more critical country smack in the middle of Asia's breadbasket, Laos, which he believes may rapidly become the canary in the Southeast Asian coalmine, whose troubles could promptly spread to China and the rest of the continent, and from there, to the rest of the world. We would add that unless the central bank approach of pedal to the liquidity metal is reversed promptly in the next few months, which it certainly will not, he will most certainly be proven correct. And just as the deterioration of events in Africa, where the rapidity of protests took even us by surprise, despite first predicting food riots just one day ahead of their actual eruption, should anger spill over in Asia, the time until everything hits a boiling point will make even the recent revolution in Tunisia appear to have transpired at a snail's pace.


http://www.zerohedge.com/article/forget-food-riots-africa-simon-black-says-canary-inflationary-coal-mine-southeast-asia
Bibimbap
Kimchee!
TeamWarfare Vet
01-18-2011 02:51 PM / profile

Originally posted by: questionmark
Related news: Commentary on rising cost of food and energy in the developing world from Simon Black

While the bulk of 2011 food protests have focused around countries that are, to put it bluntly, in the periphery of the desert, and thus mostly irrelevant from a food supply perspective (their domestic issues are of no matter to America: after all they have no oil) the recent focus on surging prices has been largely geographically isolated for the time being. That said, in today's piece, "Sovereign Man" Simon Black takes a look at a far more critical country smack in the middle of Asia's breadbasket, Laos, which he believes may rapidly become the canary in the Southeast Asian coalmine, whose troubles could promptly spread to China and the rest of the continent, and from there, to the rest of the world. We would add that unless the central bank approach of pedal to the liquidity metal is reversed promptly in the next few months, which it certainly will not, he will most certainly be proven correct. And just as the deterioration of events in Africa, where the rapidity of protests took even us by surprise, despite first predicting food riots just one day ahead of their actual eruption, should anger spill over in Asia, the time until everything hits a boiling point will make even the recent revolution in Tunisia appear to have transpired at a snail's pace.


http://www.zerohedge.com/article/forget-food-riots-africa-simon-black-says-canary-inflationary-coal-mine-southeast-asia


The author of that article, Tyler Durden, is NOT the same Tyler Durden of WWTDD.com.

I call SHENANIGANS!


Post edited by Bibimbap at 1/18/2011 2:55:09 PM
William T. Sherman
TWL Member
01-18-2011 02:53 PM / profile

Yea, I'm sure the real Tyler Durden would be writing on a gossip blog about celebrities and not exposing illegal and immoral behavior within the finance industry.
Bibimbap
Kimchee!
TeamWarfare Vet
01-18-2011 03:13 PM / profile

Originally posted by: questionmark
Yea, I'm sure the real Tyler Durden would be writing on a gossip blog about celebrities and not exposing illegal and immoral behavior within the finance industry.


You realize that Tyler Durden is a fictional character in book, right?
Aria Giovanni.pZ
Adapt
TeamWarfare Vet
01-18-2011 03:28 PM / profile

Originally posted by: questionmark
Related news: Commentary on rising cost of food and energy in the developing world from Simon Black

While the bulk of 2011 food protests have focused around countries that are, to put it bluntly, in the periphery of the desert, and thus mostly irrelevant from a food supply perspective (their domestic issues are of no matter to America: after all they have no oil) the recent focus on surging prices has been largely geographically isolated for the time being. That said, in today's piece, "Sovereign Man" Simon Black takes a look at a far more critical country smack in the middle of Asia's breadbasket, Laos, which he believes may rapidly become the canary in the Southeast Asian coalmine, whose troubles could promptly spread to China and the rest of the continent, and from there, to the rest of the world. We would add that unless the central bank approach of pedal to the liquidity metal is reversed promptly in the next few months, which it certainly will not, he will most certainly be proven correct. And just as the deterioration of events in Africa, where the rapidity of protests took even us by surprise, despite first predicting food riots just one day ahead of their actual eruption, should anger spill over in Asia, the time until everything hits a boiling point will make even the recent revolution in Tunisia appear to have transpired at a snail's pace.


http://www.zerohedge.com/article/forget-food-riots-africa-simon-black-says-canary-inflationary-coal-mine-southeast-asia
Simon Black is a douchebag that uses this stuff to pay for his living. Go sign up for one of his seminars down in Panama on how to become an escape artist. It's common sense shit what he says everywhere. People who pay for that stuff need to have their money taken from them...and so it happens that way.
Aria Giovanni.pZ
Adapt
TeamWarfare Vet
01-18-2011 03:33 PM / profile

questionmark, u r a true dumbass when it comes to these things, at least these things, maybe more.

food inflation and raw materials and minerals inflation is happening in good part due to the ETF markets...investors.

look up silver....ETF investors now hold 70% of the 2009 worldwide silver production. Speculators have driven up gold, silver and a whole slew of other basics.

Food prices in Laos are goin up because demand (by speculators) is driving prices up so the contracts go out of the country for now, just wait, this is just getting good everywhere. And I mean BAD good.
RedBeards
Competition Manager
NA Game Operations
Battlefield Series

01-18-2011 04:01 PM / profile

Originally posted by: questionmark

You´re twisting history around. The Phillips Curve was used to explain an observed phenomena (rising inflation as unemployment fell) and was then later attacked by Milton Friedman when it failed to explain the stagflation first seen in the 70´s. This wasn´t a topic of debate before the 70´s.

Edit: I don´t have all the years memorized so when I say 70´s I really mean 1970 plus or minus a couple years. My point is that nobody predicted stagflation before it actually occurred and when the idea was first introduced it brought along with it a new type of inflation (cost push), which is what we see today under loose monetary policy such as we currently have under Bernanke.


Did you read the source I posted? I gave you a Macroeconomics book which carries Paul Krugman's name on it (the 2008 Economics Nobel Prize winner) that literally says Friedman successfully predicted high inflation in the face of high unemployment prior to the 1970s. What else do you want? That's probably one of the most vetted sources ever posted on the TWL forums.

Here, I'll quote it for anyone else too lazy to look.

"The Friedman-Phelps hypothesis made a strong prediction: that the apparent trade off between unemployment and inflation would not survive an extended period of rising prices. Once inflation was embedded into the public's expectations, inflation would continue in the face of high unemployment. Sure enough, that's exactly what happened in the 1970s. This accurate prediction was one of the triumphs of macroeconomic analysis, and it convinced the great majority of economists that the natural rate hypothesis was correct."

It's not even a matter of whether you agree with Krugman's theories or not, it's a historical fact that he lists in his book.

The reason it was 'impossible' prior to the 1970s was not only because people had never seen it, but because it was rooted in economic theory widely held to be true by Keynesian economists (Phillips curve - which yes, was based on observed data). Not every economist was on that bandwagon as you originally implied.

I know the glass of water next to me isn't going to start boiling without a change in temperature or air pressure, not because its never happened but because our theoretical understanding of physics says it won't. If it were to happen then we'd have to re-evaluate our understanding of physics.

The Friedman-Phelps hypothesis, which came out prior to stagflation, predicted that the water would start boiling without a change in temperature or air pressure so to speak.
Aria Giovanni.pZ
Adapt
TeamWarfare Vet
01-18-2011 04:13 PM / profile

Allen, read my sig,

questionmark only listens to himself, it's Snake redux but worst, cuz this one thinks he is intellectual.

he never reads the articles.
Mockery
TeamWarfare Vet
01-18-2011 08:08 PM / profile

Originally posted by: Aria Giovanni.pZ
Mockery, unless you ackowledge you read my post, thou shall be a communist before God himself, and judged accordingly.


Good stuff in here...I am reading everything posted.

I am really glad I finally asked this question in here. I forgot how many econ hobbyists inhabited this forum still.

I'm probably going to have some more subquestions as I read through this...but I really like the dialog that I'm seeing in here.

Thanks everyone!!

Coba|t
TeamWarfare Vet
01-19-2011 12:28 AM / profile

Originally posted by: Aria Giovanni.pZ
Allen, read my sig,

questionmark only listens to himself, it's Snake redux but worst, cuz this one thinks he is intellectual.

he never reads the articles.

You can get black op to listen to you.

But first, you must make a blog. This blog should have some crazy fucking conspiracy theories, the crazier the better. Also, the author needs to be covert and all agent-like in his persona. You can't be that author, but you can lie!

And finally, once you've gained his trust, you plant the seed of peak oil.
William T. Sherman
TWL Member
01-19-2011 04:42 AM / profile

Originally posted by: Bibimbap
Originally posted by: questionmark
Yea, I'm sure the real Tyler Durden would be writing on a gossip blog about celebrities and not exposing illegal and immoral behavior within the finance industry.


You realize that Tyler Durden is a fictional character in book, right?


Na uh, he´s totally real.
William T. Sherman
TWL Member
01-19-2011 04:46 AM / profile

Originally posted by: Aria Giovanni.pZ
questionmark, u r a true dumbass when it comes to these things, at least these things, maybe more.

food inflation and raw materials and minerals inflation is happening in good part due to the ETF markets...investors.

look up silver....ETF investors now hold 70% of the 2009 worldwide silver production. Speculators have driven up gold, silver and a whole slew of other basics.

Food prices in Laos are goin up because demand (by speculators) is driving prices up so the contracts go out of the country for now, just wait, this is just getting good everywhere. And I mean BAD good.


Speculators my ass. There are strong fundamentals pushing all commodities up at the moment. Namely loose monetary policy by the fed and tightening supplies.
William T. Sherman
TWL Member
01-19-2011 04:51 AM / profile

Originally posted by: Aria Giovanni.pZ

Simon Black is a douchebag that uses this stuff to pay for his living. Go sign up for one of his seminars down in Panama on how to become an escape artist. It's common sense shit what he says everywhere. People who pay for that stuff need to have their money taken from them...and so it happens that way.


I don´t need, nor do I pay for, his advice. I just read his newsletter for his commentary on current events.
Post edited by questionmark at 1/19/2011 4:52:44 AM
William T. Sherman
TWL Member
01-19-2011 04:59 AM / profile

Originally posted by: Allen


Did you read the source I posted? I gave you a Macroeconomics book which carries Paul Krugman's name on it (the 2008 Economics Nobel Prize winner) that literally says Friedman successfully predicted high inflation in the face of high unemployment prior to the 1970s. What else do you want? That's probably one of the most vetted sources ever posted on the TWL forums.

Here, I'll quote it for anyone else too lazy to look.

"The Friedman-Phelps hypothesis made a strong prediction: that the apparent trade off between unemployment and inflation would not survive an extended period of rising prices. Once inflation was embedded into the public's expectations, inflation would continue in the face of high unemployment. Sure enough, that's exactly what happened in the 1970s. This accurate prediction was one of the triumphs of macroeconomic analysis, and it convinced the great majority of economists that the natural rate hypothesis was correct."

It's not even a matter of whether you agree with Krugman's theories or not, it's a historical fact that he lists in his book.

The reason it was 'impossible' prior to the 1970s was not only because people had never seen it, but because it was rooted in economic theory widely held to be true by Keynesian economists (Phillips curve - which yes, was based on observed data). Not every economist was on that bandwagon as you originally implied.

I know the glass of water next to me isn't going to start boiling without a change in temperature or air pressure, not because its never happened but because our theoretical understanding of physics says it won't. If it were to happen then we'd have to re-evaluate our understanding of physics.

The Friedman-Phelps hypothesis, which came out prior to stagflation, predicted that the water would start boiling without a change in temperature or air pressure so to speak.


Textbooks are just one point of view on a subject. When I asked for a source I meant a primary one, as in one of Friedman´s own papers. Krugman is a liar who will twist things around in order to fit his own narrative and I don´t trust him or anything with his name attached to it.
William T. Sherman
TWL Member
01-19-2011 05:00 AM / profile

Originally posted by: Coba|t
Originally posted by: Aria Giovanni.pZ
Allen, read my sig,

questionmark only listens to himself, it's Snake redux but worst, cuz this one thinks he is intellectual.

he never reads the articles.

You can get black op to listen to you.

But first, you must make a blog. This blog should have some crazy fucking conspiracy theories, the crazier the better. Also, the author needs to be covert and all agent-like in his persona. You can't be that author, but you can lie!

And finally, once you've gained his trust, you plant the seed of peak oil.


I didn´t realize the U.S. military was on par with blogs in terms of credibility.
RedBeards
Competition Manager
NA Game Operations
Battlefield Series

01-19-2011 05:28 AM / profile

Originally posted by: questionmark


Textbooks are just one point of view on a subject. When I asked for a source I meant a primary one, as in one of Friedman´s own papers. Krugman is a liar who will twist things around in order to fit his own narrative and I don´t trust him or anything with his name attached to it.


Of course. How dumb of me to think you would trust a college textbook written by a Nobel Prize winning economist that probably underwent more review and scrutiny by editors than what gets posted on the front page of the NY Times.

We're not even talking about theory here, we're talking about whether or not Friedman's work came before the 1970s era of stagfaltion, which it did.

But, here you go again:

Throughout the 1960s, Keynesians—and mainstream economists generally—had believed that the government faced a stable long-run trade-off between unemployment and inflation—the so-called phillips curve. In this view the government could, by increasing the demand for goods and services, permanently reduce unemployment by accepting a higher inflation rate. But in the late 1960s, Friedman (and Columbia University’s Edmund Phelps) challenged this view. Friedman argued that once people adjusted to the higher inflation rate, unemployment would creep back up. To keep unemployment permanently lower, he said, would require not just a higher, but a permanently accelerating inflation rate (see Phillips curve).

The stagflation of the 1970s—rising inflation combined with rising unemployment—gave strong evidence for the Friedman-Phelps view and swayed most economists, including many Keynesians. Again, Samuelson’s text is a barometer of the change in economists’ thinking. The 1967 edition indicates that policymakers faced a trade-off between inflation and unemployment. The 1980 edition says there was less of a trade-off in the long run than in the short run. The 1985 edition says there is no long-run trade-off.


Website

Or maybe you prefer "HowStuffWorks"?

Economist Milton Friedman was one of the first to predict the stagflation of the 1970s. Friedman understood that the Federal Reserve wields incredible power to increase or decrease inflation in the U.S. In Friedman's worldview, inflation happens when the Fed allows too much money to circulate in the economy. His formula for inflation is simple: "Too much money chasing too few goods."


Website

We can do this all day. Friedman made the speech in a 1960s presidential address so the transcript/audio is probably out there somewhere, but I'm not going to go that far. He wasn't the only major economist who predicted it either (hence the Phelps part). Your theory that it wasn't discussed prior to happening is flat out wrong.



RedBeard
TeamWarfare Competition Manager
Email: redbeard@teamwarfare.com
IRC: #teamwarfare, #twl_bf
William T. Sherman
TWL Member
01-19-2011 05:51 AM / profile

I prefer primary sources, such as Friedman´s own writing.
RedBeards
Competition Manager
NA Game Operations
Battlefield Series

01-19-2011 06:04 AM / profile

Originally posted by: questionmark
I prefer primary sources, such as Friedman´s own writing.


Sure.

The American Economic Review, Vol. 58, No. 1. (Mar., 1968), pp. 1-17.

First place I know of that it was published after his initial address.

Now, if you want the actual paper he wrote on, I might have to concede to you there.

RedBeard
TeamWarfare Competition Manager
Email: redbeard@teamwarfare.com
IRC: #teamwarfare, #twl_bf
William T. Sherman
TWL Member
01-19-2011 06:08 AM / profile

For Aria: Yup, speculators are driving up commodity costs through ETF´s. Suuuuurrrreeee, maybe thats why the U.S. mint is selling record amounts of physical silver.

http://www.zerohedge.com/article/us-mint-reports-january-silver-sales-hit-26-year-high
William T. Sherman
TWL Member
01-19-2011 06:16 AM / profile

Originally posted by: Allen
Originally posted by: questionmark
I prefer primary sources, such as Friedman´s own writing.


Sure.

The American Economic Review, Vol. 58, No. 1. (Mar., 1968), pp. 1-17.

First place I know of that it was published after his initial address.

Now, if you want the actual paper he wrote on, I might have to concede to you there.


That source is perfect, and I´ve actually read it before. I just need to know where in there does he introduce the concept?
Post edited by questionmark at 1/19/2011 6:49:12 AM
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